Marketa Vondrousova vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second serve performance in the last 6 months shows Vondrousova slightly ahead with a 40.77% win rate compared to Sabalenka's 39.53%. Does this indicate Vondrousova might edge Sabalenka in tighter rallies? Yes, but the margin is narrow.
• Return game stats suggest Vondrousova is stronger, winning 51.5% of second serve points compared to Sabalenka's 48.08%. Given the tight stats in first serve returns, does this give Vondrousova a slight edge? Yes, particularly against weaker serves.
• In terms of handling pressure, Sabalenka saves 52.37% of breakpoints, slightly outperforming Vondrousova at 49.44%.
• Over the past year, Sabalenka has had a higher win percentage at 83.75% compared to Vondrousova's 69.23%, highlighting her consistency.
• Sabalenka performs best on Hard courts with a 74% win rate, whereas Vondrousova excels on I.hard with an 81% win rate, influencing surface-based predictions.
• Sabalenka has matched up mostly at the Masters series with an 80.95% win rate, whereas Vondrousova has competed on the Main tour, winning 80% of her matches. Does this reflect Sabalenka's experience at higher event levels? Likely yes.
• Direct head-to-head encounters favor Sabalenka slightly, with a 5-4 match lead, and a similar edge in set wins (12-10).
• Deciding sets are evenly split, indicating a balanced competition if this match goes the distance.
• Sabalenka's slightly better performance against top-ranked opponents, with an average rank of 46.35, presents her as more accustomed to higher-caliber competition.
• In recent breakpoint conversion, Vondrousova edges Sabalenka at 34.06% against 31.53%, an important stat for capitalizing on pressure moments.

Editorial Prediction (September 2, 2025, UTC):

As the upcoming match between Aryna Sabalenka and Marketa Vondrousova approaches, both players showcase compelling strengths that could sway the outcome.

While Vondrousova leads slightly in second serve performance and return stats, Sabalenka's broader experience, higher win percentage over the past year, and success on hard courts position her strongly. Moreover, her ability to prevail in high-pressure situations, with a slight edge in direct encounters, gives her a psychological advantage.

Although both players present an evenly matched contest in many aspects, Sabalenka's superior tournament experiences and psychological edge in tight situations make her the likely favorite to win this match. Based on the statistical analysis and historical performances, Aryna Sabalenka is predicted to triumph in this encounter.